The latest report by the AMA shows that more than 10,000 extra GPs will be needed to meet Australia’s growing demand for medical services.
The general practice workforce: why the neglect must end, found that between 2009 and 2019, demand for GP services increased by 4.7% annually for a total growth of 58% – equivalent to the workload of 10,200 full time GPs – yet in the past five years, the equivalent of only 4,200 full time GPs were recruited.
With national demand set to grow, the report said that there will be a projected shortfall of over 10,600 full time GPs by 2031 – 2032 if strategies are not put in place to attract and retain the GP workforce.
Demand for GP services was driven by population growth (1.6%), ageing (0.2%), more frequent visits by patients to their GPs (1.7%) and spending more time with the GP at each consult (1.2%).
The report also highlighted the prevalence of chronic health conditions, with the AIHW reporting that almost half (47%) of Australians have at least one chronic condition, with one in five (or 4.9 million people) impacted by multiple issues.
AMA President Professor Steve Robson said the Association’s projections showed no let-up in future demand for GP care and that many GPs, who have worked under increased pressure to keep up with the community’s existing needs, are now at breaking point.
“The GPs we have now, who have shouldered the load in the pandemic, are doing the best they can, but can’t hope to hold back the on-coming wave of demand,” Professor Robson said.
“We are staring at this unimaginable shortage of GPs in our future and our projections show these pressures are just not going to ease up. We simply should not be in this position, but it is clear the short-sighted policies of successive Commonwealth governments have failed the community.
“It should come as no surprise that we’re failing to fill all our available GP training places each year given the impact of the extended freeze on Medicare rebates for GP services, cuts to prevocational GP training places and the abject failure of governments to deliver the support general practice needs to deal with the increasingly complex health care needs of the community.”
The report stated that further modelling will be required to estimate the exact number of Australian and overseas trained GPs required to meet the projected shortfall over the next decade, to account for the growing trend of younger GPs working reduced hours and the impact of the older workforce reaching retirement age.
For example, modelling conducted by the WA Department of Health in 2015 – 2016 showed that for every Full-Service Equivalent (FSE) of clinical practice, Australia needs to train two extra GPs to cover the changing patterns of the workforce.
“We need to make general practice an attractive career for new medical graduates,” Professor Robson said, speaking with the ABC on 25 November 2022.
“It used to be that a half of all freshly graduated doctors aspired to become a general practitioner, but the way things are looking now, it is probably about one in seven, which is going to leave us with a tremendous shortfall – and we all understand just how difficult it is to get an appointment to see a GP as it is now.”
The report also highlighted that more GPs were choosing to leave the profession early, and Dr Robson said that there were several options that people could pursue once they had left general practice, especially those who exited mid-way through their career.
“We are seeing some people returning to hospital practice, we are seeing some people just go into other roles like administration or health advocacy. And some are just retiring, becoming grey nomads – all sorts of things,” he said.
“We need to get the hard-working GPs who are considering a career change to stay where they are and keep providing the care that we all need and providing incentives to do that.”