The number of people living with arthritis and other musculoskeletal conditions in WA is set to rise 41% by 2045, new modelling shows.
Chronic musculoskeletal health conditions such as arthritis, low back pain and fractures due to osteoporosis are a leading cause of disability globally.
People living with these conditions experience pain, loss of function, reduced participation in valued activities and lower quality of life.
A report from Monash University, in collaboration with Curtin University, Arthritis & Osteoporosis WA and HelloJP consulting using ABS and Australian Institute of Health and Welfare data forecasts a dramatic rise in diagnosed cases and the cost of managing chronic musculoskeletal conditions in the state.
By 2045, the number of West Australians living with arthritis is projected to increase to 609,858 – an additional 177,874 people.
The number of people with long-term back problems is projected to increase to 597,635, which is an additional 135,130 people.
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And the number of people with osteoporosis is forecast to increase by 51,780 people to 152,694.
Lead author Professor Ilana Ackerman, Deputy Director of Monash University’s Musculoskeletal Health Unit, said the increasing burden of musculoskeletal conditions presented both a challenge and an opportunity for the WA health system.
“As the population grows and becomes older, and as demand for equitable, timely and person-centred care continues to rise, there is great value in building a more deliberate and co-ordinated approach to improving musculoskeletal health across sectors, particularly in emerging digital technologies to support self-care and clinical care delivery,” she said.
The report found the greatest burden of arthritis, osteoarthritis, rheumatoid arthritis, and osteoporosis would be experienced by females.
By 2045 the number of females living with these conditions was expected to be 47% higher for arthritis, 74% higher for osteoarthritis, 68% higher for rheumatoid arthritis and 392%higher for osteoporosis when compared with the number of males.
Based on recent spending levels and the projected increase of people living with these conditions, annual health system expenditure is forecast to exceed $1.03 billion in 2025 and $2.25 billion in 2045.
Co-author Professor Andrew Briggs, from Curtin University’s School of Allied Health, said the ability to plan for and provide appropriate care for people who live with musculoskeletal conditions hinges on a solid understanding of what the future health landscape looks like.
“Western Australia is unique; its demographic, population health and health service delivery contexts are different to other parts of the country,” he said.
“For these reasons we need local data on how to respond to a projected health burden.”
He said for optimal musculoskeletal wellbeing, co-created responses would be needed so the system could scale up accessible, affordable, person-centred service models, especially for vulnerable groups, that support high value care.
Arthritis and Osteoporosis WA executive director Ric Forlano added: “By investing in prevention, ensuring timely access to high-quality care and strengthening health workforce capabilities, these projections can help shape a future for WA where support is available when and where it is needed most.”
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