A national team of experts has updated the Immunisation Coalition COVID-19 Risk Calculator to include data on the Pfizer vaccine and its efficacy against infection and death.
Western Australia has administered more than 4 million doses of the COVID-19 vaccine, and more are likely to come. But, as more and more people get their jab, doctors will face increasing number of inquiries about vaccine side effects.
To address this issue, a national team of experts from the University of Queensland (UQ), Queensland University of Technology, and Flinders University developed an online tool to calculate the risk of adverse vaccine events.
The online tool, known as the Immunisation Coalition COVID-19 Risk Calculator or CoRiCal was originally focused on providing a risk assessment for the AstraZeneca vaccine, but now has been updated with data about the Pfizer vaccine, focusing on its efficacy against infection and death, as well as on the probability of developing myocarditis.
While CoRiCal is aimed at adults, it also contains data on 12–19-year-olds, which can help GPs put the risks of adverse vaccine events into perspective.
According to UQ Professor Colleen Lau, who helped develop the model behind the online tool, the new tool may be useful for patients who are still unsure about vaccination. “For people who are generally concerned about side effects and just trying to get more information to weigh up the benefits, having a risk chart at the consultation can be really helpful,’ Prof Lau said in a news release.
CoRiCal can also be used by patients to assess the benefits and risks at a personal level, taking into consideration their age, sex, current community transmission scenario and vaccination status. As an output, CoRiCal produces estimates on a patient’s risk of contracting COVID-19 and dying from it, as well as producing a comparison of the risks and benefits of vaccination.
For example, an unvaccinated male aged 12–19, has a one in 37 chance of contracting COVID, according to CoRiCal. With one vaccine dose, this risk drops to one in 79, and after the second dose, this person has a one in 340 chance of acquiring the virus.
The CoRiCal team is now working on a similar tool aimed at children aged 5 – 11, who just started getting the COVID-19 vaccine this year.
The CoRiCal online tool is available here.