New study predicts 50,000 deaths and 270,000 long Covid cases if current plans of ending lockdowns and restriction when 80% of adults are vaccinated proceed.
In a recent study, published on 14 August, a multi-institutional team of researchers warn against plans to ease restrictions when 80% of Australians aged 16 years or older are fully vaccinated. The modelling study, which is not yet peer-reviewed, predicts that as many as 50,000 people could die and that as many as 270,000 people could develop long COVID.
The study used a modelling approach to estimate the likely morbidity and mortality expected to occur once COVID-19 restriction ease. Their estimates offer a much sombre picture than a previous modelling study led by the Doherty Institute in Melbourne, which is currently being used by the Australian government to inform their COVID-19 response.
According to Dr Zoë Hyde, an epidemiologist from The University of Western Australia and first author of the study, their findings show that it is “simply too dangerous to treat Covid-19 like the flu,” she said in a news article. This comment comes in light of official statements from the Doherty Institute, which claimed that reaching a safe level of vaccination, “…will make it easier to live with the virus, as we do with other viruses such as the flu”.
About the new study
The new modelling effort also made some specific recommendations on what should be done to improve our chances of reducing harm from this pandemic. Some of the key recommendation of this new report include:
- “Children and adolescents should be vaccinated
- Vaccine coverage among adults aged≥60, and other vulnerable groups (including First Peoples), should be ≥95%.
- Persons vaccinated with ChAdOx1-S (AstraZeneca) should be given an mRNA booster
- High vaccination coverage for the entire population, preferably≥90%.”
These recommendations, however, are not a silver bullet for the pandemic. Even if we successfully implement these four recommendations, the study predicts that as many as 5,000 people might die and 40,000 others could catch long COVID.
So, how do the results of this new study compare to those from the Doherty institute?
About the Doherty modelling
The modelling done by the Doherty Institute, published earlier this month, aimed to inform the Australian government about a target level of vaccine coverage that would allow our country to move into the Phase B of the National transition plan. Phase B would see our international borders open, reduce number of lockdowns and overall ease current restrictions, among other changes.
One of the key recommendations from this report, said that:
“In the COVID-19 modelling, opening up at 70% vaccine coverage of the adult population with partial public health measures, we predict 385,983 symptomatic cases and 1,457 deaths over six months. With optimal public health measures (and no lockdowns), this can be significantly reduced to 2,737 infections and 13 deaths.”
The modelling was based on certain criteria, such as mostly focusing on people 16 year of age or older, and only looking up to 80% vaccine coverage for this population. In terms of vaccination strategy, the Doherty modelling also did not consider the use of boosters in currently vaccinated people and considered that children did not pose a significant risk in terms of transmitting the virus.
According to the report: “While intense school-based mixing is anticipated between children aged 5-14, the transmission matrix accounts for the relatively low observed infectiousness of this age group, associated with a high proportion of asymptomatic infections.”
Current research suggest that young children do not get as sick from this virus as adults and do not seem to transmit it as often as adults. However, further research is warranted to get the full picture.
For example, in another recent study by Dr Hyde, published on August 16, it was found that younger children, aged 0 to 3 years, have a greater risk of transmitting the COVID-19 virus, compared to older children. “This study showed that even the youngest of children readily transmit the virus. The key takeaway for me is that it clearly shows that there’s transmission from children occurring in the household. This means we urgently need to think about how we’re going to protect schools when they reopen shortly,” Dr Hyde said in an article for the New York Times. Furthermore, in a recent interview from The Conversation, most of the experts involved agreed that children should be vaccinated against COVID-19.
For more specific details about the criteria and findings from the Doherty modelling work, see their official report and press release.
Medical Forum contacted the Doherty Institute about this new modelling study, but a representative said they were unable to respond.
Clearly, further research is needed to elucidate the best strategies to keep Australians from all age groups safe, especially when considering new variants that may emerge and how little we know about the long term effects of the virus.