A modelling study led by the WA government suggests that even with 90% vaccination coverage about 117 people will die in 2022 from COVID-19.
According to a new study from the WA government, once we reach a 90% vaccination coverage, and once COVID-19 reaches WA, about 117 will be expected to die, over 1000 will be hospitalised and over 43,000 will get the virus and have symptoms.
The modelling study used a compartmental Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model, a commonly used approach to simulate viral transmission. The model simulates the spread of the COVID-19 virus, based on how likely individuals are to transmit the virus and considering the control measures in place. For example, the model assumed:
- 90% vaccination coverage in the population aged 12 years and above;
- Public health and social measures with mask mandates in certain circumstances;
- Medium levels of testing, tracing, isolation and quarantine;
- Mandatory PCR testing pre-departure and testing upon arrival in WA for all international and domestic arrivals;
- Double-dose vaccination requirement for most incoming arrivals, except children under 12 years of age;
- No quarantine requirements for vaccinated arrivals from selected countries;
- 14 days quarantine for unvaccinated returning Australians (and some vaccinated international arrivals deemed high risk); and
- A volume of domestic and international arrivals from selected countries similar to pre-pandemic levels.
Based on these assumptions, the study also found that reaching the 90% vaccination goal would save about 200 lives and prevent nearly 300 hospitalisations needing intensive care, compared to 80% coverage. Regarding the number of people infected and with symptoms, the study calculated that 80% vaccination coverage would result 104,251 cases, compared to 43,108 if we reach the hoped 90% vaccination coverage.
According to WA’s Chief Health Officer Andrew Robertson, getting to 90% vaccination coverage would help hospitals, WA would push the curve well out beyond the normal winter hospital crunch.
“What gets sometimes forgotten I think is that every [COVID-19 patient] we put into an ICU is one less person that can go into those ICU beds, so that will impact on other people who have other conditions who are seriously unwell,” Dr Robertson said.
The modelling efforts also found that vaccinations and mask wearing were not enough.